[ii] In order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at levels that avoid irreversible climate change, we must stop emitting industrial-scale carbon into the atmosphere (exceeding nature’s inherent ability to process it), and we must cleanse the atmosphere of the existing excess carbon which is driving greenhouse gas global warming. Fossil fuels ushered in the modern era with access to cheap energy to raise the quality of life in developed nations. However, with rising costs to health, environmental degradation, climate change, energy security, economic inequity (energy poverty) and economic progress the continued use of fossil fuels is destabilizing the original prosperity and security that was first achieved.
Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, B. Tormey, B. Donovan, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. LeGrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2016: “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous”. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812, doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016;
Rockström, J., et al. 2009. “Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity”. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
Melillo, Jerry M., Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., 2014: Highlights of Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 148 pp. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report
Radford, Tim. “West Antarctic ice cascades towards crisis,” Nov 11, 2015, Scientists warn that continued ocean warming will lead to ice loss in the Amundsen Sea region that could raise sea levels by three meters. “Sixty years of melting at the presently observed rate are enough to launch a process that is unstoppable and goes on for thousands of years.” http://climatenewsnetwork.net/west-antarctic-ice-cascades-towards-crisis/
“Rapid submarine ice melting in the grounding zones of ice shelves in West Antarctica,” Ala Khazendar, et al, Nature Communications, Oct 25, 2016, http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13243
[iii] Peak, Matt (Editor, 2011). “Carbon Capture & Recycling Industry Overview: A review and analysis of technologies and organizations that recycle industrial carbon dioxide emissions into beneficial new products,” Prepared by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc. for Prize Capital, 2011.
Hydrogen Generation Market worth $152.09 Billion USD by 2021. “Hydrogen Generation Market by Generation & Delivery Mode (Captive, Merchant), Technology (Steam Methane Reforming, Partial Oxidation, Gasification, and Electrolysis), Application (Refinery, Ammonia Production, and Methanol Production), & Region – Global Forecast to 2021.” The hydrogen generation market is expected to grow from an estimated USD $117.94 Billion in 2016 to USD $152.09 Billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 5.2% during the forecast period. Major factors such as cleaner fuel as compared to others, government regulations for desulfurization of petroleum products, and decreasing crude oil quality are driving the market worldwide. http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/hydrogen-generation-market-494.html
[iv] Oloman, Rowan. “Carbon Recycling: An Alternative To Carbon Capture And Storage,” Pipeline & Gas Journal, August 2009 Vol. 236 No. 8, https://pgjonline.com/2009/08/06/carbon-recycling-an-alternative-to-carbon-capture-and-storage/ Carbon Capture and Recycling (CCR) is economically and technologically distinct from carbon sequestration (CCS) which seeks to bury CO2 in the ground.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) (or carbon capture and sequestration) is the process of capturing waste carbon dioxide (CO2) from large point sources, such as fossil fuel power plants, transporting it to a storage site, and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere, normally an underground geological formation. The aim is to prevent the release of large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere (from fossil fuel use in power generation and other industries).
Carbon capture and recycle (CCR) (or carbon capture and reuse): “An industry is emerging with a new option to mitigate industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions while generating additional revenue. Dubbed ‘Carbon Capture and Recycling’ (CCR), this new industry dispels the notion that CO2 is a liability that needs to be buried – as is the case with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) – and instead views the gas as a resource to be capitalized upon, using it as a feedstock in the production of valuable products such as fuel, building materials, animal feed, specialty chemicals, and plastics, among other things. In the near-term, this new industry represents a paradigm change that could avert the need to resolve complex issues associated with CCS and instead prompt renewed action on CO2 mitigation. Such action is essential as a carbon constrained world emerges.” (Peak, 2011)
[v] Ahluwalia, R.K., et al. “Technical Assessment of Organic Liquid Carrier Hydrogen Storage Systems for Automotive Applications” (June 2011). https://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/pdfs/liquid_carrier_h2_storage.pdf
[vi] “Targets for Onboard Hydrogen Storage Systems for Light-Duty Vehicles” (September 2009). US Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and The FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership. https://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/storage/pdfs/targets_onboard_hydro_storage_explanation.pdf
[vii] Renewable Energy to Fuels Through Utilization of Energy-Dense Liquids (REFUEL).
REFUEL Program Overview (scientific and technical summary).
REFUEL Current ARPA-E Sponsored Project Descriptions:
[viii] Graphene: “an allotrope of carbon in the form of a two-dimensional, atomic-scale, honey-comb lattice in which one atom forms each vertex… Graphene has many extraordinary properties. It is about 100 times stronger than the strongest steel. It conducts heat and electricity efficiently and is nearly transparent… The global market for graphene is reported to have reached $9 million by 2012 with most sales in the semiconductor, electronics, battery energy and composites industries.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphene
[ix] Carbon Fiber: “are fibers about 5–10 micromeres in diameter and composed mostly of carbon atoms… To produce a carbon fiber, the carbon atoms are bonded together in crystals that are more or less aligned parallel to the long axis of the fiber as the crystal alignment gives the fiber high strength-to-volume ratio (making it strong for its size). Several thousand carbon fibers are bundled together to form a tow, which may be used by itself or woven into a fabric.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_fibers The global demand on carbon fiber composites was estimated at around US$15.75 billion in 2015.
[x] Composite materials: a material made from two or more constituent materials with significantly different physical or chemical properties that, when combined, produce a material with characteristics different from the individual components. The individual components remain separate and distinct within the finished structure. The new material may be preferred for many reasons: common examples include materials that are stronger, lighter, or less expensive when compared to traditional materials. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Composite_material
Carbon fiber reinforced polymer, carbon fiber reinforced plastic or carbon fiber reinforced thermoplastic (CFRP, CRP, CFRTP or often simply carbon fiber, or even carbon), is an extremely strong and light fiber-reinforced plastic that contains carbon fibers, …CFRPs can be expensive to produce but are commonly used wherever high strength-to-weight ratio and rigidity are required, such as aerospace, automotive, civil engineering, sports goods and an increasing number of other consumer and technical applications. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_fiber_reinforced_polymer
The global carbon fiber reinforced plastic market (CFRP) is projected to reach USD 35.75 Billion by 2020. .http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/PressReleases/carbon-fiber-composites.asp
[xi] Peak, Matt (Editor, 2013). “Commercializing the CO2-Asset Industry: A comprehensive industry creation and commercialization engine to catalyze a world where CO2 is an asset,” Prepared by Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, Inc. for Prize Capital, 2013.
[xii] Gore, Al. The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. Random House, 2013. Chapter 1 is about the emergence of a deeply interconnected global economy, includes sections on
“Rethinking Resources” p 27 describes the impact of emerging new carbon technology, and
“The Rise of 3D Printing” p 30 describes the impact of emerging additive manufacturing as technology learns to directly assemble atoms and molecules.
[xiii] Dahl, J., K. Buechler, R. Finley , T. Stanislaus , A. Weimer , A. Lewandowski , C. Bingham , A.Smeets , and A. Schneider: Rapid Solar-thermal Dissociation of Natural Gas in an Aerosol Flow Reactor. Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0424; National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401-3393
[xiv] http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_4_06/article_04_2.html : “The result is an airframe comprising nearly half carbon fiber reinforced plastic and other composites. This approach offers weight savings on average of 20 percent compared to more conventional aluminum designs.”
[xv] http://www.bbc.com/news/business-25833264: “When it comes to airliners, weight is money. The heavier a plane is, the more fuel it takes to drive it through the air. The more fuel it takes, the more it costs. The drive to increase fuel efficiency and improve the aerodynamic performance of new aircraft is leading designers to move away from using aluminum in airframes. Instead, today’s latest planes like Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and Airbus’s A350 rely on lightweight carbon fiber composites – woven mats of carbon that are embedded in plastic. The key to a composite material like carbon fiber is that it is incredibly strong for its weight.”
[xvi] “Comparison of carbon fiber vs steel manufacturing costs”. http://www.rmi.org/RFGraph-carbonfiber_vs_steel_manufacturing ; Cramer, David and D. Taggart (2002). “Design and Manufacture of an Affordable Advanced-Composite Automotive Body Structure”. http://www.rmi.org/Knowledge-Center/Library/T02-10_AdvancedCompositeAutomotiveBody
Fuchs, Erica R. H., Frank R. Field, Richard Roth, and Randolph E. Kirchain. 2008. “Strategic Materials Selection in the Automobile Body: Economic Opportunities for Polymer Composite Design.” Composites Science and Technology 68 (9): 1989–2002. http://s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/msl1.mit.edu/ContentPages/17971621.pdf
Boeman, Raymond G., and N. L. Johnson. 2002. Development of a Cost Competitive, Composite Intensive, Body-in-White. Publication 2002-01-1905. Oak Ridge National Laboratory http://aprs.ornl.gov/~webworks/cppr/y2001/pres/113371.pdf
Park, Chung-Kyu, C. Kan and W Hollowell. “Invesigation of Opportunities for Light-weighting a Body-on-frame Vehicle Using Advanced Plastics and Composites”. http://www-esv.nhtsa.dot.gov/Proceedings/23/files/23ESV-000023.PDF
[xvii] Ibrik K., Al-Meer M. and Ozalp N., (2012), Catalytic solar thermochemical processing for enhance heat transfer and emission-free production of hydrogen, Chemical Engineering Transactions, 29, 499-504 499;
Dahl, J., K. Buechler , R. Finley , T. Stanislaus , A. Weimer , A. Lewandowski , C. Bingham , A. Smeets , and A. Schneider: Rapid Solar-thermal Dissociation of Natural Gas in an Aerosol Flow Reactor. Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0424; National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401-3393
[xviii] Hall, Charles and Kent Klitgaard, Energy and the Wealth of Nations: Understanding the Biophysical Economy, Springer Media, 2012.
Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI). “In physics, energy economics, and ecological energetics, energy returned on energy invested (EROEI); or energy return on investment (EROI), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy used to obtain that energy resource. It is a distinct measure from energy efficiency as it does not measure the primary energy inputs to the system, only usable energy. A fuel or energy must have an EROEI ratio of at least 3:1 to be considered viable as a prominent fuel or energy source. When the EROEI of a resource is less than or equal to one, that energy source becomes a net “energy sink”, and can no longer be used as a source of energy, but depending on the system might be useful for energy storage (for example a battery). A related measure Energy Store On Energy Invested (ESOEI) is used to analyze storage systems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_invested
[xix] Ogden, Joan. “Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier: Outlook for 2010, 2030 and 2050”, Institute of Transportation Studies , University of California, Davis. From workshop proceedings 2001, “The 10-50 Solution: Technologies and Policies for a Low-Carbon Future.” The Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the National Commission on Energy Policy. http://www.c2es.org/docUploads/10-50_Ogden.pdf
Hall, Charles; Tharakan, Pradeep; Hallock, John; Cleveland, Cutler; Jefferson, Michael; “Hydrocarbons and the evolution of human culture”, Nature 426, 318-322 (20 November 2003) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v426/n6964/abs/nature02130.html
[xx] Romm, Joseph (2004). The Hype about Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate. New York: Island Press.
Romm, Joseph. Elon Musk Is Right: Hydrogen Is ‘An Incredibly Dumb’ Car Fuel, ThinkProgress.org (part of a series of articles discussing the economic and technical variables between electric car and fuel cell car). 2-12-2015; https://thinkprogress.org/elon-musk-is-right-hydrogen-is-an-incredibly-dumb-car-fuel-d0f37a4c9bee#.63zgm22lu
Consumer Reports: “Driving the 2016 Toyota Mirai – on the hydrogen highway: The promise of free fuel for three years makes this fuel-cell car an intriguing option”, 4-21-2015; http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/news/2015/04/2016-toyota-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car/index.htm
[xxi] Ibid. Romm (2004) addresses the cost of production and availability of hydrogen (primarily focused on the limitations of Stream Methane Reforming of natural gas) in Chap 4 in the section “Hydrogen Generation Today and Tomorrow” (p 72) with a set of key questions that Metrol can now answer in new and innovative ways:
- Is there enough natural gas to both meet the growing demand for gas-fired power plants and supply a significant fraction of a hydrogen-based transportation system?
- What would happen to the prices of natural gas, hydrogen, and electricity with a dramatic increase in the demand for natural gas to make hydrogen?
- Can the delivered cost of hydrogen from natural gas become competitive with the delivered cost of gasoline?
- Can the infrastructure costs be reduced to manageable levels? Current estimates are as much as a trillion dollars or more.
- Which will be cheaper and/or more practical, reforming methane at small local filling stations or at large centralized planes? Could technological advances change the answer to that question?
- Are the global warming benefits from methane-based hydrogen sufficient to justify building an infrastructure around SMRS (steam methane reforming system), or should we wait until we can build the infrastructure around a CO2-free source of hydrogen?
- Can automakers build an affordable and practical PEM vehicle that will use the hydrogen?
[xxii] MIT. “The Future of Natural Gas, An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, Interim Report”, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010.
[xxiii] McAlister, Roy. Chapter 3 “Methane…Friend or Foe? Converting Greenhouse Gases into Profitable Products”, p 32; Chapter 10 “The Solar Hydrogen Economy”, p 142, The Solar Hydrogen Civilization: The Future of Energy is the Future of Our Global Economy, Hydrogen Association, 2005.
[xxiv] Romm, Joseph. ThinkProgress.org. “Methane CH4, the primary component of natural gas, is a very potent greenhouse gas. On a 20 year timescale, CH4 is 86 times more powerful at trapping heat than CO2.” http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/story/chasing-methane/
Ibid. McAlister (2005) teaches that the existing pipeline infrastructure has a vital role to play in enabling methane (both fossil and renewable sources) to serve as a transport delivery system for hydrogen (energy) and carbon (manufacturing feedstock): “…modern steel pipelines now carrying natural gas can readily transport mixtures of renewable hydrogen and methane along with natural gas. This facilitates an important opportunity to link producers of hydrogen from solar-rich, wind-rich, falling-water and wave-rich areas with markets in far- away cities that are presently served by natural gas.” p 30.
[xxv] World Economic Forum, “Global Risks Report 2016”. http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2016/
[xxvi] International Institute for Sustainable Development, “The Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus: Toward a practical planning and decision-support framework for landscape investment and risk management,” 2013. http://www.iisd.org/library/water-energy-food-security-nexus-towards-practical-planning-and-decision-support-framework
[xxvii] Heffner III, Robert. The Grand Energy Transition: The Rise of Energy Gases, Sustainable Life and Growth, and the Next Great Economic Expansion. Wiley (2009).
[xxviii] Korten, David. The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community. Berrett-Koehler Pub., 2006.
Macy, Joanna. Active Hope: How to Face the Mess We’re in Without Going Crazy. New World Library, 2012
Senge, Peter, et al. The Necessary Revolution: How Individuals and Organizations are Working Together to Create a Sustainable world. Doubleday, 2008.
McKibben, Bill. Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and Durable Future. Henry Holt & Co., 2007.
Gore, Al. Earth in the Balance: Forging a New Common Purpose. (2006 edition / 1992)
[xxix] “Accelerating technologies and abundance thinking create entirely new and unprecedented opportunities to solve humanity’s grand challenges…Education, Energy, Environment, Food, Global Health, Poverty, Security, Space and Water” (p 23)
“Becoming deliberately expansive instead of contractive, we ask, ‘How do we think in terms of wholes?’ If it is true that the bigger the thinking becomes the more lastingly effective it is, we must ask, ‘How big can we think?’” (Buckminster Fuller, Operating Manual for spaceship Earth, 1969, p 59 )
[xxx] Gates, Bill. “A Business Plan for America’s Energy Future,” p. 9, American Energy Innovation Council, 2010. http://americanenergyinnovation.org/2010/06/the-business-plan-2010/
“By Bill Gates: Why I’m investing $1 billion of my own money into clean energy research,” August, 3, 2015. https://qz.com/470592/by-bill-gates-why-im-investing-1-billion-of-my-own-money-into-clean-energy-research/
Gates, Bill. “We need an Energy Miracle,” The Atlantic, an interview with Bill Gates on the Future of Energy, Nov 2015. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/11/we-need-an-energy-miracle/407881/
[xxxi] Ibid. McAlister (2005). Figure 10.1: Renewable Resources Revolution’s Carbon Cycle, p. 148
[xxxii] Rifkin, Jeremy, The Foundation on Economic Trends (FOET), http://www.foet.org/; quoted in “Will Biosphere Consciousness change Our Economy? By Maria Fonseca 7-26-2014, http://www.intelligenthq.com/innovation-management/9-quotes-by-jeremy-rifkin/